Weekly Recap: Shenanigans in the Triad, a crowded Triangle race and two key court rulings
From a deep dive into North Carolina's most crowded primary to a pair of court decisions impacting voting in the 2024 election, we had a busy week in state politics.
Three quick housekeeping notes before we dive into this past week’s news:
If you go to this week’s “Tweet of the Week” section, you’ll be rewarded with a fun backstory and details on how you can send me your best Bryan Anderson attack ad for a chance to win free all-access to Anderson Alerts (No paywalls for you or a friend through the March 5 primary)!
I’ll also be hitting the road next weekend, which means there likely won’t be a Sunday recap
Final Reminder: Starting Thursday, Feb. 1, monthly and annual membership costs increase from $5/month and $50/year to $8/month and $75/year. Founding members can contribute up to $200 to show extra support, or double the current $100 max contribution. You can read more about these changes and other ways this Substack aims to serve as a sustainable operation.
Now let’s take a look back at the frenetic week that was in North Carolina politics…
North Carolina’s most crowded primary
On Monday, 12 of the 14 candidates running in North Carolina’s open 13th Congressional District seat participated in what is likely to be the most crowded single-race forum of the year.
In order of how they’ll appear on the primary ballot, the 14 Republicans vying for the seat are attorney Kelly Daughtry, construction project manager Marcus Dellinger, Garner resident David Dixon, former prosecutor Brad Knott, businessman Steve Loor, U.S. Air Force Commander Josh McConkey, Lillington resident James Phillips, accountant Siddhanth Sharma, former Navy Intelligence Officer Matt Shoemaker, Navy veteran Eric Stevenson, businessman Fred Von Canon, author Kenny Xu, truck driver Chris Baker and businessman DeVan Barbour.
All but Dixon and Phillips participated in the GOP forum in Cary hosted by the Western Wake Republican Club.
Whichever Republican ultimately emerges victorious will square off against Democratic small business owner Frank Pierce in a general election that is all but guaranteed to go the GOP, as it swung for former President Donald Trump by 17 percentage points in 2020. Democratic U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel announced last month that he wouldn’t run for reelection and instead plans to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.
Three tiers of candidates
One thing became abundantly clear from the GOP forum. There are three tiers of candidates in this race: Frontrunners, middle of the packers and longshots. Of the forum attendees, I’d put four Republicans in each camp.
Frontrunners: Barbour, Daughtry, Knott and Von Canon
Middle of the pack: McConkey, Shoemaker, Stevenson and Xu
Longshots: Dellinger, Baker, Sharma and Loor
If you want a recap of how all the candidates performed, I have a thorough recap here.
Barbour stood out above everyone else as the most skilled retail politicker. Daughtry, Knott and Von Canon neither stood out for better or for worse, leaving few memorable moments, but no major mistakes.
McConkey clung tightly to Trump. Shoemaker came across well with a repeated line of the need he saw to “defund stupidity and to send intelligence to D.C.” Stevenson came across as relatable and affable. Xu delivered a horrendous performance, with the most controversial moment of the night coming when he overtly said white males are heavily mistreated in society and that Black people have been treated preferably under civil rights laws “for much, much too long.”
Dellinger and Baker came across as friendly but nervous, often struggling to articulate their points. Loor struggled with a language barrier. Sharma spoke very clearly, but is not seen as a serious contender.
Who will win?
Trying to predict primaries is a fool’s game. In a contest with 14 candidates, the March 5 primary isn’t so much about finishing in first as it is about landing in the top two.
No candidate is likely to surpass the 30% share of the vote necessary to claim the nomination outright. If this holds true, the top two vote-getters will advance to a second primary scheduled for May 14.
In looking at the field of 14, the five players to watch most closely down the stretch are Barbour, Daughtry, Knott, McConkey and Von Canon. They have political experience, a clear message, sizable financial resources, a good showing in previous primary elections, or some combination of the four.
A frenetic congressional race in the Triad
It’s not just North Carolina’s Triangle-area race that’s noteworthy. The most interesting primary to watch on March 5 may very well be in the Triad, where six Republicans are looking to punch a direct ticket to Washington, D.C.
The 6th Congressional District race outside Greensboro is one of just two contests without a Democratic contender. With no third-party candidates running for this particular seat, the Republican who comes out on top in the primary effectively heads straight to Congress come 2025.
The six candidates are retired Army Lt. Col. Christian Castelli, plastic surgeon Mary Ann Contogiannis, businessman Bo Hines, lobbyist Addison McDowell, former High Point Mayor Jay Wagner and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker.
Of the six, three are seen as frontrunners: Walker, Hines and McDowell. But Castelli is also a serious contender, as he has been on a general election ballot before for about one-third of voters included in the newly-drawn district.
Wagner and Contogiannis face more longshot odds.
The week brought some major developments in the race:
On Monday, Club for Growth endorsed Hines. This dealt a major blow to McDowell, who is running with Trump’s support. In races where Club for Growth and Trump have been on the same page, primaries have proven far less complicated. But in contests where the two are at odds, intraparty fights have been highly contentious. The Club for Growth endorsement also greatly hurts Walker, who now finds himself as the victim of new attack ads levied against him.
On Thursday, endorsements touted by Castelli supporters came under heavy scrutiny. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson hasn’t endorsed in the race, but that didn’t stop a pro-Castelli group from posting a misleading video on social media falsely claiming Robinson was backing Castelli. The problem: That video was from the 2022 general election, not the current election cycle. The group, First Freedoms Foundation, has since deleted the video but didn’t respond to a request for comment. Castelli has Robinson’s endorsement on his campaign website under a 2022 endorsements section. Castelli declined to comment on the political group’s misleading video, but did accurately note he doesn’t list Robinson as a current endorsement. That wasn’t the only misleading “endorsement.” The same political group also shared a video of Castelli getting the support of former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Like Robinson, however, Pompeo endorsed Castelli in the leadup to the 2022 election, not the 2024 primary.
It wasn’t just Castelli under fire. On Thursday, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson walked back his support of Walker. On Friday, things only got worse for Walker, as the Raleigh News & Observer reported that Walker also didn’t have the support of Pompeo or a current U.S. senator.
Late Thursday night, McDowell tweeted out an unusual video taking aim at Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s criticisms of Zyn, which offers consumers small white pouches filled with nicotine as an alternative to tobacco. In the video, McDowell is holding a pitchfork and urges people to join his campaign to fight back against what he sees as government overreach. “I won’t let them come for our guns, our zyns, our bbq, or our Cheerwine,” McDowell wrote in his post. (I asked the campaign how it felt liberals were trying to cancel Cheerwine and was met with no response). I also reported on Thursday that Donald Trump Jr. would be coming to Greensboro next month to hold a fundraiser for McDowell.
So what does all this spell? A highly unpredictable primary that only continues to get more confusing and messy. At this point, I’m trying to figure out if this race is more like the House of Cards Netflix drama or the Veep HBO comedy series. The through line: Nothing is as simple as it seems. My best comparison for this race: the Brad Pitt and George Clooney film Burn After Reading.
2 important court rulings
We got two notable court decisions this week. The takeaways: One substantive policy change that won’t take effect in 2024 and one voting map that remains untouched.
Court Ruling #1:
On Jan. 21, a federal judge blocked a provision in a sweeping new elections law that deals with same-day voter registration.
Under Senate Bill 747, North Carolinians who registered and voted on the same day would have had their ballot rejected if a verification notice sent to their home via the U.S. Postal Service was returned as undeliverable. That provision is now blocked from being implemented.
In a 94-page ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Schroeder said the concerns brought forward by the Democratic National Committee, North Carolina Democratic Party and voting access groups about the potential for ballots to be wrongfully rejected outweighed the state’s interest in taking extra steps to ensure voters live where they say they do.
Court Ruling #2:
In a win for Republican lawmakers, a federal judge on Friday denied a request that Democratic voters made to prevent the GOP-friendly North Carolina Senate map from being used in the 2024 elections.
District Court Judge James Dever ruled that there wasn’t enough evidence presented to order a new map at a time when votes have already been cast.
Democrats are now appealing the decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals.
‘You deserve a challenge’
In North Carolina last year, five Democrats voted for a state budget that, in part, bolsters conservative influence over the Judicial Standards Commission, which recently ended an investigation into state Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls.
During a virtual news conference on Thursday, I asked North Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton what her message would be to voters weighing whether to vote for incumbent Reps. Cecil Brockman, Carla Cunningham, Michael Wray and Shelly Willingham (who voted for the budget) or the challengers to them —James Adams, Vermanno Bowman, Rodney Pierce and Abbie Lane.
Clayton replied, “We want Democrats this election cycle that are gonna uphold our fundamental values as Democrats, which means the right to vote is one of the most important ones. And if you're not doing that, I think that you deserve a challenge this year.”
While state parties tend to stay out of contested primaries, her comment reflects a growing frustration among some in the party with Democratic members who often cross party lines. Time will tell if voters reward the most bipartisan members of the legislature or turn to candidates who are further left ideologically.
I have the Brockman-Adams race as the top legislative primary to watch, as that may be the best barometer of the direction the Democratic Party is heading.
Tweet of the Week/Subscription Giveaway
I’m going to have to go with a tweet of my own as this week’s winner. And if you read this entire section, you can learn more about a giveaway for a complimentary all-access Anderson Alerts membership through the primary!
My tweet didn’t get much attention, but it comes with a fun backstory that I hope you’ll appreciate.
When I showed up to the 13th Congressional District forum on Monday, one candidate (whom I’ve never interacted with) was pretty hostile from the outset. As I introduced myself, his facial expression turned sour when I mentioned I was a reporter. He said he disliked reporters because he felt mistreated by some in the past.
When he asked if I was liberal or conservative, I asked another candidate to walk over to give their fellow congressional hopeful, Steve Loor, the answer. That candidate informed Loor that I was fair and down the middle.
In my event recap, I wrote at least somewhat critically of all candidates, assessing what areas they struggled in and where they had a pathway.
In listing Loor among the longshots in the race, I didn’t mention his history of election losses or the first news article that shows up when you search for him: “Judge reprimands NC GOP candidate, his ex-wife and her new husband for poor parenting.”
I offered a mere 11-word summary of his performance at the forum: “Loor struggled with a language barrier in getting his points across.”
The following day, I saw a Twitter notification where Loor linked to a five-minute, bot-narrated video he made taking aim at my coverage, and if you care to watch, a number of personal attributes. He posted it on YouTube for all of one viewer (yours truly) to see. While I pride myself on not spreading misinformation or personal attacks, this video was too amazing not to share with folks.
Which brings me to the giveaway…
Send me an attack ad!
I now have a request of all Anderson Alerts subscribers who find themselves with way too much time on their hands: Send me your best Bryan Anderson attack ad! And yes, this is a serious request.
If you shoot me an email with your best attack ad, grant me permission to share it and manage to bring a smile to my face in the process, I’ll give you complimentary access to Anderson Alerts through the March 5 primary. And if you already have a paid membership, I’ll give a month-long gift membership to whoever you want.
So get going people!
If you need some self-inflicted oppo research, here are some starting points: I’m from California, cheer for the Oakland A’s, San Jose Sharks and Buffalo Bills, went to college at Elon University, currently work as a freelance journalist (not a full-time news organization), don’t drink coffee and my hobbies include collecting Disney pins and playing softball, tennis and board games.
And if you need an embarrassing photo for your ad, I’ve got you covered: Behold a 21-year-old Bryan eating a Starbucks lemon pound cake while on assignment in New Jersey in 2017 reporting on Superfund sites and decades-long water contamination:
Until next time…
Thank you all for your continued readership! I shall return to your feed soon, especially as we see campaign finance reports trickle in.
Is there nothing we can do to elect a Democrat in District 13?????