Weekly Recap: RFK fights to get off ballot, Stein takes gubernatorial lead, NC now a presidential tossup
Democrats saw positive momentum in the gubernatorial and presidential race this week. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. unsuccessfully sought to get himself removed from the ballot.
This will be the final weekly recap between now and Election Day. From here on out on Sundays, you can expect a Q&A with a key candidate or political player. If you have suggestions of people you’d most like to hear from, shoot me a note! Now let’s dive into what you need to know from the week that was.
RFK Jr. Ballot Fight
The man who spent months fighting to get on North Carolina ballots is now actively working to get removed.
Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed former President Donald Trump last month. To firm up that commitment, he has sought to get his name removed from the ballot in a number of states, including North Carolina.
But this past week, the state’s Democratic-controlled State Board of Elections voted along party lines to keep Kennedy on the ballot, citing the impracticality of starting the ballot printing process from scratch. Republican members criticized the decision, saying the board had latitude to push back the state’s Sept. 6 ballot printing deadline.
For both major political parties in North Carolina, the RFK Jr. saga represents a 180-degree turn.
North Carolina Republican Party leaders had previously supported getting Kennedy on the ballot, with the assumption that his placement on the North Carolina ballot would hurt President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects and help Trump. But when Biden dropped out and Kennedy Jr. endorsed Trump, a vote for Kennedy could presumably hurt Trump and help Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
As of now, Kennedy Jr. is suing to get his We The People Party off the ballot. On Saturday, the latest voter registration data showed 255 of North Carolina’s more than 7.6 million voters were registered through Kennedy Jr.’s party. Meanwhile, no North Carolinian was registered through Cornel West’s Justice For All Party.
Bad news for GOP
On Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report adjusted its rankings for North Carolina’s presidential and gubernatorial contests.
The group moved the state from a lean-Republican status to a tossup at the presidential level and shifted the gubernatorial race from tossup to lean-Democrat.
Robinson now playing from behind
In the governor’s race, North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson finds himself trailing Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.
Surveys of registered and likely voters this month have shown Robinson trailing outside the margin of error. In the tightest poll, which was commissioned by the conservative John Locke Foundation (Carolina Journal/Cygnal), Robinson trailed Stein by 5 percentage points, which was outside the margin of error of 4 points. Polls conducted by High Point University and the New York Times/Siena College showed Stein ahead of Robinson by double digits.
In a campaign memo last month, Brent Buchanan, a pollster for Robinson’s campaign who also is the president and founder of Cygnal, falsely claimed Robinson was “polling better than McCrory in 2016 and Forest in 2020” and that Robinson “is on track to win.”
Robinson is actually polling nearly identically to 2020 gubernatorial candidate Dan Forest and is polling far worse than 2016 GOP gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory. Forest and McCrory also lost their respective 2020 and 2016 elections to Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
If you want to dive into the crosstabs and hear more about the polls, I have a comprehensive overview here.
Robinson goes public
For the first time in months, Robinson’s campaign website now lists public events. The campaign appeared to update Robinson’s schedule last week by listing over a dozen future events.
On Tuesday, Robinson is set to have his most active day of public campaigning thus far this election cycle, with five meet and greets with voters in western North Carolina.
The move comes amid frustration within Robinson’s political orbit over the direction the campaign is heading. Some have criticized Robinson for shifting his positioning on abortion and not doing as much retail politicking. Others see a lack of money as the biggest obstacle for the campaign to overcome.
AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, reported on Wednesday that Stein had benefitted from $46.4 million on ads to date, more than double the $20.4 million Robinson benefitted from. The gap widens when it comes to future ad reservations, with Stein’s campaign or supporters of his already booking $16.2 million between now and the November election compared to $1 million for Robinson.
📖 5 Essential Reads
Kennedy sues to get off North Carolina ballot (Rusty Jacobs // WUNC)
Gov. Tim Walz visits Raleigh campaign office, raises money in first NC visit as VP candidate (Danielle Battaglia and Korie Dean // Raleigh News & Observer)
GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina has a history of inflammatory words. It could cost Trump (Gary Robertson // Associated Press)
In North Carolina, the Math for a Supermajority May Come Down to One (David Chen // New York Times)
This was the year advanced practice nurses thought they’d get full practice authority in NC. They were wrong. (Twumasi Duah-Mensah // North Carolina Health News)
Tweet of the Week
Of the four options, I proudly cast my ballot for Bojangles (the only correct answer)!
Who do you want to hear from?
With the November election approaching, I’ll be interviewing several candidates up and down the ballot. If there’s someone you want to hear from, please let me know!