Polls show Robinson underperforming, trailing Stein in NC governor's race
Public opinion polls conducted this month universally show Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson trailing Attorney General Josh Stein in North Carolina's governor's race.
Disclaimer/Reporter’s Note: While studying at Elon University from 2014 to 2018, I briefly helped the Elon Poll by doing live interviews. As someone who carefully monitors public opinion polls to this day, I tend to avoid sharing results from individual pollsters, particularly ones with partisan leanings, poor methodologies or a lack of transparency.
But when a clear pattern emerges, a story can be merited. Such is the case today. Because I didn’t have a Sunday weekly recap, I’m making this post available to everyone. So let’s dive into it…
Stein outpacing Robinson
North Carolina’s governor’s race is one of two gubernatorial tossups nationwide and is expected to be highly competitive. But public opinion polling shows increased strength for Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and diminishing prospects for Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
Collectively, the polls show Stein in a solid position to win, with voters expressing nearly identical levels of support to him as they did in 2020 for Gov. Roy Cooper at this stage in the election cycle. (Cooper ultimately went on to win by 4.51 percentage points)
Taken in aggregate, surveys of registered and likely voters this month show Robinson trailing outside the margin of error. In the tightest poll, which was commissioned by the conservative John Locke Foundation (Carolina Journal/Cygnal), Robinson trailed Stein by 5 percentage points, which was outside the margin of error of 4 points. Polls conducted by High Point University and the New York Times/Siena College showed Stein ahead of Robinson by double digits.
In a campaign memo first circulated last week and released to reporters on Tuesday, Brent Buchanan, a pollster for Robinson’s campaign who also is the president and founder of Cygnal, falsely claimed Robinson was “polling better than McCrory in 2016 and Forest in 2020” and that Robinson “is on track to win.”
The data doesn’t bear out Buchanan’s claims for August, as Robinson is polling nearly identically to 2020 gubernatorial candidate Dan Forest and is polling far worse than 2016 GOP gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory. Forest and McCrory also lost their respective 2020 and 2016 elections to Cooper.
In August 2016, polls universally showed McCrory within single digits of Cooper (and a Democratic-leaning pollster showed McCrory in a statistical tie).
Also of note: The Cygnal poll released this month by Buchanan’s firm showed Robinson trailing Stein at a level outside the margin of error. While it’s true Republican gubernatorial candidates have outperformed polls released in August, the numbers from Buchanan’s firm aren’t a good sign the campaign is on a winning track.
Diving deeper
A new survey released on Tuesday by Elon University in partnership with McClatchy may perhaps be the most revealing poll. While Elon University didn’t ask how registered North Carolina voters planned to cast their ballot in the gubernatorial election, the poll did show huge favorability gaps between Stein and Robinson. And crosstabs help explain the divide.
According to the poll, Stein had a positive net favorability of 15 percentage points, while Robinson had a net unfavorability of 20 points. In other words, voters have a far more favorable view of Stein than Robinson.
When diving into the weeds of demographic groups that could decide the election, Robinson also trails Stein. Among women, Stein is at +22, while Robinson is at -30. Among Black voters, Stein is at +60, while Robinson is at -50.
Looking at their respective political bases, Stein has a net favorability of 77 percentage points among Democratic-leaning voters. Robinson’s net favorability among GOP-leaning voters: 44 points.
One animating issue for respondents surveyed was abortion, with a plurality of voters wanting to increase access to abortion beyond the state’s current law banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. A plurality of Republicans favor keeping the existing law untouched. Few voters of either party want more restrictions.
While Robinson personally opposes abortion in all cases, he had for months advocated for a heartbeat bill, which would ban abortions at six weeks, with exception for rape, incest and life of the mother. His campaign has pivoted away from that, instead advocating for keeping the current law as it is.
The Elon Poll found just 28% of Republicans wanted increased restrictions, while 44% favored keeping the law as it is and 16% wanted to loosen restrictions.
Divides from within
Earlier this month, I reported extensively on divides within Robinson’s political orbit. Individuals close to Robinson and others more distant from him who spoke to Anderson Alerts pinned the brunt of the blame for the campaign’s struggles on Robinson’s closest confidant, Conrad Pogorzelski III, a 28-year-old consultant they see as in over his head.
Pogorzelski insisted the campaign extends well beyond himself and said in a statement that his critics represent an “old guard of Republican political consultants.”
In a statement, Robinson said he’s confident with his pathway and had complete confidence in Pogorzelski and the campaign’s direction.
“We have a large, experienced team, and our campaign has a great strategy we are executing,” Robinson said. “We are going to win this race.”