Weekly Recap: Runoff Election Day Preview, what to do with a $1 billion surplus
North Carolina House lawmakers passed a bill aiming to combat antisemitism. Meanwhile, state budget analysts lowered their forecast for a budget surplus by $430 million.
Greetings all! Before we dive into the week that was in North Carolina politics, I wanted to offer a couple quick housekeeping notes:
On Tuesday, North Carolina will hold its second primary elections (more commonly referred to as runoffs). The two major races to watch: the GOP runoffs for lieutenant governor and state auditor. I’ll have a breakdown of the results later that night or early Wednesday, so make sure to check your feed.
On Wednesday or Thursday, I’ll release my list of the top 24 races to watch in North Carolina for the general election. The post will be available to all paid members, so there’s no better time than the present to upgrade to an all-access Anderson Alerts membership. This was a popular story in the primary, so I’m doing it again for the general election and will update it as warranted over the next six months. I’ll offer some analysis behind why I ranked the races the way I did and share a few takeaways from conversations I’ve had with several of the featured candidates.
Now to the news of the week…
💰 $430 million correction
Last month, North Carolina economists within the Office of State Budget and Management and the legislature’s Fiscal Research Division announced an expected $400 million surplus for the current fiscal year and a $1 billion surplus for the upcoming fiscal year starting July 1.
But new estimates released on Friday show the state will see a smaller surplus of $188 million for the current fiscal year and $799 million for the next fiscal year.
The $430 million difference between last month’s forecasted $1.4 billion surplus and this month’s revision to $987 million stems from a significant gap between the projected state tax collections and actual money received.
There’s now a debate over how best to go about spending the nearly $1 billion surplus.
“We have the surplus to raise teacher pay- legislators should invest in public schools, not taxpayer funded private school vouchers for the wealthy,” Gov. Roy Cooper wrote on Twitter in response to the latest budget forecast.
But GOP leaders are at odds with Cooper.
Senate leader Phil Berger has floated the idea of tax rebates. Additionally, he and House Speaker Tim Moore are pushing to fully fund the state’s school voucher program, also known as opportunity scholarships.
On Thursday, the “Do Politics Better” podcast hosted by Brian Lewis and Skye David reported that the governor would announce “an error” was made in his administration’s budget projections. The podcast cited a male state senator involved in the budget writing process as its source.
On Friday morning, State Budget Director Kristin Walker pushed back.
“The forecast last month was, as it always is, a consensus between Fiscal Research staff and OSBM staff,” Walker told me in a text message. “It’s not accurate to call it an ‘error’ on one side.”
Indeed, the Consensus Forecasting Group, which includes economists within the OSBM and the legislature’s Fiscal Research Division, is tasked with making projections, not the governor himself or his administration exclusively.
🇮🇱 Combatting antisemitism
North Carolina House lawmakers this past week voted nearly unanimously in support of a bill to define antisemitism, paving the way for judges to impose harsher sentences on those who commit crimes on the basis of religion.
Under House Bill 942, or the SHALOM Act, North Carolina would apply the working definition of antisemitism that was adopted by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in 2016, which states that antisemitism is a “certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”
Examples of antisemitic behavior would include targeting of the state of Israel, claiming that Israel’s existence is a racist endeavor and accusing Jews or Israel of inventing or exaggerating the Holocaust.
Moore, one of the bill’s primary authors, said the bill was necessary to protect Jewish people, particularly in light of protests at UNC-Chapel Hill and other college campuses.
“We’ve seen actual physical violence that is escalating to a point that is just something that we have not seen during many of our lifetimes in this state,” Moore said on the House floor on Wednesday. “We have to deal with this. We have to be very clear that this will not be tolerated.”
But some critics worried the measure would stymie free speech or wasn’t necessary because the state already has laws against hate crimes.
The measure passed by a vote of 105-4, with Reps. Nasif Majeed, Pricey Harrison, Marcia Morey and Renee Price opposed to the bill.
“Let’s take a stand, but not a segmented stand, not a narrow stand,” Majeed said on the House floor. “Let’s take a comprehensive stand that offers solutions and appropriate penalties.”
The measure now goes to the Senate. If approved and signed into law, the measure would take effect on July 1. The North Carolina Department of Administration would then receive $10,000 from the state’s General Fund to educate people about the bill.
🗳️ Runoff Election Guide
All registered Republicans can vote in the May 14 runoff. Additionally, unaffiliated voters who either didn’t vote in the March 5 primary or who voted using a Republican ballot in the March 5 primary are also eligible.
Individuals who become eligible to vote between the March 5 primary and the May 14 runoff are able to register and vote on Election Day (May 14).
You can find your Election Day polling place by entering your information into the state’s Voter Search tool, or search using your address with the Election Day Polling Place lookup tool.
There are five runoff contests, including the following:
GOP Lieutenant Governor:
Hal Weatherman
Jim O’Neill
GOP Auditor:
Jack Clark
Dave Boliek
GOP 13th Congressional District:
Kelly Daughtry
Brad Knott
GOP South Point Township District on the Gaston County Board of Commissioners:
Jim Bailey
Ronnie Worley
Third seat on the Orange County Schools Board of Education:
Jennifer Moore
Bonnie Hauser
Of these five contests, the two worth watching are the lieutenant governor and auditor’s races. Daughtry suspended her congressional campaign and endorsed Knott, and there’s minimal spotlight on the two county-level races. Due to the very low turnout expected in the runoffs, the races are highly unpredictable.
To help voters make an informed choice at the statewide level, I’ve profiled the lieutenant governor and auditor runoffs, which you can learn more about here:
NC Runoff Election Preview: A look at the race for lieutenant governor
NC Runoff Election Preview: A look at the race for state auditor
📖 5 essential reads
Mark Robinson suggests he's being politically persecuted amid probe of wife's nonprofit (Colin Campbell // WUNC)
Challenge to North Carolina’s new voter ID requirement goes to trial (Gary Robertson // Associated Press)
At urging of NC Chamber, some environmental commission members want to delay PFAS rules (Lisa Storg // NC Newsline)
How much do NC election directors make? Search our database (David Raynor and Kyle Ingram // Raleigh News & Observer)
The Timeless Boyhood of a Baseball Lifer (Tim Brown // The Assembly)
Stay tuned
I’ll return to your feed on the heels of the runoffs and to preview the top 24 general election contests to watch. Thanks for your continued readership!