Weekly Recap: Lawmakers pass new voting maps
North Carolina Republicans enacted new legislative and congressional maps this week. What you need to know
Let’s dive into the week that was, with a focus on redistricting…
Redistricting
North Carolina Republican lawmakers on Wednesday voted along party lines to enact new legislative and congressional lines that stand to give the GOP major political advantages heading into the 2024 election.
North Carolina’s congressional delegation is currently evenly split 7-7. That will change, as Reps. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte, Kathy Manning of Greensboro and Wiley Nickel of Raleigh are left without a viable place to run. Depending on the outcome of Rep. Don Davis’ tossup race in eastern North Carolina, Republicans stand to have a 10-4 or 11-3 advantage in the U.S. House.
Jackson has since announced a run for attorney general, where he’s expected to face Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop in the general election.
In the state Senate map, Republicans are in a prime position to maintain their chamber’s supermajority.
Overall, Republicans have a 29-18 edge when awarding lean Republican and lean Democratic seats accordingly. Of all 50 contests up for grabs, there will be at least four open seats, all of which are in districts currently represented by Democrats.
Assuming all three tossup contests are 50/50 races, Democrats would have a 12.5% chance of winning them all. While I’m oversimplifying things, it’s fair to say Democrats are in deep trouble under the Senate map.
Meanwhile, in the state House, Republicans have a better chance of a supermajority under the new maps compared to the 2022 map. Even so, Democrats have a decent pathway to breaking the GOP supermajority.
Overall, Republicans have a 69-46 edge when awarding lean Republican and lean Democratic seats accordingly. Democrats would need to at least four of six seats to prevent a GOP supermajority.
In examining the differences between the 2022 and 2024 legislative maps, one pattern emerged. Statewide, the balance of districts are pretty evenly shifted.
In the House, for example, 44 districts become more conservative, while 42 become more liberal and 34 remain the same. On average, districts that become more conservative do so by 6.4 percentage points. Districts that become more liberal do so by an average of 6.7 percentage points.
But for close races, things change greatly.
In 2022, there were 20 House races and 10 Senate races that were at least somewhat competitive (areas won by Biden or Trump by less than 10 percentage points). Going into 2024, only three of those 30 seats will have a greater share of Biden voters than they did in 2022.
And in 2024, there will be fewer competitive races. Of the 17 House and 8 Senate seats that are at least somewhat competitive, none will have a greater share of Biden voters than they did in 2022.
Walker mounts congressional run, ends bid for governor
Former North Carolina U.S. Rep. Mark Walker confirmed to me on Wednesday that he’s dropping out of the governor’s race, dealing a boost to GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Mark Robinson.
Walker first told the conservative Carolina Journal website of his plans. Walker told me he will run with the endorsement of the new U.S. House speaker, Mike Johnson of Louisiana.
The newly drawn 6th Congressional District that Walker is seeking is considered a safe Republican seat, meaning Walker’s biggest test is likely to occur in a March primary. Walker previously represented the Greensboro area in Congress from 2015 to 2021.
Republicans approve slew of new appointments
North Carolina Republicans on Wednesday approved a five-page list of appointments onto the judiciary and several state boards and commissions.
You can read a comprehensive overview here, with more information about some of the most unique selection.
Thanks much!
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