Weekly Recap: Redistricting underway, lawsuits galore, campaign finance numbers and more
North Carolina lawmakers unveiled new voting maps this week. What you need to know about them
It’s been a busy week in North Carolina politics. Let’s dive right in…
💪Redistricting
On Wednesday, North Carolina GOP leaders unveiled draft legislative and congressional maps.
I offered a comprehensive analysis of the biggest winners and losers of the legislative maps (state House and state Senate) and the two proposed congressional plans.
Some of the biggest winners:
State Rep. Tricia Cotham, the Democrat-turned Republican who gave the GOP a supermajority by switching parties in April. Her safe Democratic seat in Mecklenburg County would be a tossup district in 2024 and beyond. She could also run for Congress. Both maps move her outside of Democratic Rep. Alma Adams’ district into a safe Republican seat.
House Speaker Tim Moore appears to have a congressional district carved for him. He had mulled a run in 2022 only to be upended by Rep. Madison Cawthorn and a state Supreme Court order for new maps. Now, he appears to have a viable district, securing a seat in western North Carolina while drawing out Rep. Jeff Jackson.
GOP state Rep. Ted Davis of New Hanover County and Republican Sens. Bobby Hanig of Currituck County, Michael Lee of New Hanover County and Tom McInnis of Moore County all move from highly competitive seats to more Republican-friendly districts, giving the GOP a better chance at retaining their supermajorities in the House and Senate.
Some of the biggest losers:
Democratic Reps. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte, Kathy Manning of Greensboro and Wiley Nickel of Raleigh are done for under both proposed congressional maps. Rep. Don Davis is also more vulnerable, though one of the plans puts him in a toss-up seat.
House Democratic Leader Robert Reives finds himself in a tossup district under the proposed state House map.
Democratic Rep. Diamond Staton-Williams is double-bunked against a Republican incumbent in solidly red district. Meanwhile, Rep.s Terence Everitt, and Lindsey Prather are moved into GOP-leaning seats.
Democratic Sen. Natasha Marcus is drawn out of her district. She’s considering moving to a new district in Mecklenburg County
Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein is double-bunked into Sen. Jay Chaudhuri’s district. If she wants to run again, she may have to do so in a Wake County toss-up seat.
Here’s how the new legislative maps compare to the current ones:
💰Heavy spending
I dove through Federal Election Commission filings this week. A major takeaway: Republican congressional candidates are largely self-financing their 2024 bids to unseat two vulnerable Democratic incumbents, new federal campaign finance reports show.
In North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, which stretches from Wilson to Greenville to Elizabeth City, Davis faces a number of potential general election opponents.
Sandy Smith, who unsuccessfully ran for the eastern North Carolina seat in 2020 and 2022, raised more than $341,000 from July through September. But much of that sum, $250,000, came from a personal loan she made in September. She also loaned her campaign $100,000 in June.
Another primary contender, businessman and Navy veteran Fred von Canon, raised over $259,000, with $200,000 of that fundraising haul coming from personal loan. Von Canon also loaned his campaign $100,000 in June.
Army veteran Laurie Buckhout entered the race on Monday and pledged to spend $1 million of her own money.
Davis is far from the only vulnerable Democrat.
Nickel represents the 13th Congressional District, which includes all of Johnston County and parts of Wake, Wayne and Harnett counties.
The Republican primary field is already crowded.
State Rep. Erin Paré, DeVan Barbour, Josh McConkey, and Matt Shoemaker have all announced campaigns. McConkey has contributed $250,000 to his own congressional campaign thus far. He entered October with nearly $366,000.
Republican attorney Kelly Daughtry unsuccessful ran for Nickel’s seat in 2022 and is seen as someone who could enter the race. Former U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, who also lost her 2022 GOP primary the seat now held by Nickel, donated $500 to Paré’s campaign, perhaps a sign she won’t run again in 2024.
Paré has the biggest money edge in the GOP primary. She raised over $600,000 from July through September, with $400,000 of that haul coming from a personal loan. She entered October with $596,000 in the bank.
⚖️Cooper lawsuit
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper on Tuesday filed a lawsuit to block implementation of a new law stripping him of his ability to appoint elections officials and allowing state lawmakers to create evenly split state and county elections boards.
The renewed GOP effort to alter the makeup of the State Board of Election, which presently has a 3-2 Democratic advantage, comes after past defeats in court and a constitutional amendment voters overwhelmingly rejected in 2018.
“Like Gollum reaching for the One Ring, [House Speaker Tim Moore and Senate leader Phil Berger] are possessed by the power it brings,” Cooper’s lawsuit says. “When it comes to seizing control of the enforcement of the state’s election laws, neither the clear rulings of the Supreme Court, nor the overwhelming vote of the people, will deter them.”
Republicans argue the law is necessary to restore public confidence in elections and require bipartisan consensus in order for serious decisions to be made.
Shortly after overriding the governor’s veto of Senate Bill 749, Sens. Paul Newton of Cabarrus County and Warren Daniel of Burke County, slammed Democrats refusal to support the measure.
“Senate Democrats had a chance to support increasing transparency in our elections, but they chose to mislead voters and spread hyperbolic rhetoric,” Newton and Daniel said in a statement. “Overriding this veto ensures voters can go to the polls knowing that elections are being conducted in a fair, nonpartisan manner.”
If enacted and held up in court, county elections boards would likely see a 2-2 split, while the State Board sees a 4-4 split.
What to watch for
We should see new voting maps enacted on or by Thursday, with votes likely to split along or very closely along party lines. The bills only need a majority vote to be enacted, and Republicans have a supermajority in both chambers.
There are no bills presently on Cooper’s desk, and the newly proposed voting maps aren’t subject to the governor’s input.
On Monday, lawmakers will hold initial committee votes and begin considering amendments.
On Tuesday, lawmakers will hold additional committee votes and initial floor votes.
On Wednesday, lawmakers will hold final committee votes and additional floor votes. If Democrats object to a bill on third reading or Republican deliberations cause a brief delay, things could bleed over into Thursday for a final procedural vote.
Democrats and voting access groups are then all but guaranteed to file a lawsuit, where they may see a greater chance of success in federal court than the state’s current 5-2 conservative Supreme Court.
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