2024 NC Primary Election Preview: What you need to watch for on Tuesday
A look at the key races and things to watch for on Election Day, as well as a review of the week that was in North Carolina politics.
With Super Tuesday around the corner, we’re mixing things up this week. Rather than the usual weekly recap, today’s edition is an election preview that also reflects on the week that was in North Carolina politics.
Let’s begin with an updated look at the top 24 primary races to watch in North Carolina on Tuesday. On Jan. 5, I ranked them based on a hybrid of competitiveness and the significance the results will have on the state of the Democratic and Republican parties. Today, I’m giving far more weight to competitiveness and unpredictability. A full list of candidates in all the races I’m tracking is available here.
My updated top 24 primary rankings are listed below and also show how they’ve changed since the Jan. 5 rankings:
GOP 6th Congressional District ⬆️ 2
GOP 13h Congressional District ⬇️ 1
GOP 1st Congressional District ⬆️ 1
DEM 60th House District ⬆️ 3
GOP Lieutenant Governor ⬇️ 3
GOP 8th Congressional District ⬆️ 2
GOP 10th Congressional District ⬇️ 2
GOP 82nd House District ⬆️ 12
DEM 27th House District ⬆️ 6
GOP 13th Senate District ⬆️ 8
DEM 105th House District ⬇️ 1
DEM Treasurer ⬆️ 10
GOP Commissioner of Labor ⬆️ 11
DEM Attorney General (prev. unranked)
DEM NC Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 6 ⬇️ 10
GOP Commissioner of Insurance (prev. unranked)
GOP Auditor ⬇️ 8
GOP 3rd Senate District ⬆️ 3
GOP 62nd House District ⬇️ 1
GOP 25th House District ⬇️ 7
GOP 80th House District ⬇️ 5
GOP Treasurer ⬆️ 1
DEM Commissioner of Insurance ⬇️ 4
GOP 9th House District ⬇️ 10
Races no longer in the top 24:
DEM Governor (prev. 11)
GOP Governor (prev. 12)
Explanation behind the rankings
What’s Left Out:
DEM/GOP Governor: It’s become increasingly clear that the Democratic and Republican governor’s primaries aren’t going to be close. Since Jan. 5, alternatives to Attorney General Josh Stein and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson haven’t gained the substantial ground needed for an upset.
What’s Added:
DEM Attorney General: It’s not going to be as smooth sailing as some thought for U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson, but he’s still very much the favorite. The race has attracted outside spending, as some conservatives work to bolster Jackson’s top opponent, Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry, thus making the contest more interesting.
GOP Commissioner of Insurance: There may be more GOP resistance to Republican Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey than I had expected. The Assembly had a great piece on this race, which made me second guess Causey’s chances. While he’s still the favorite, Causey does have some interesting challengers.
What’s Seriously Changed:
6th Congressional District: While other primaries may be more likely to go to runoffs, the 6th Congressional District race is the messiest I remember covering in a long time. The contest pits a Trump-endorsed lobbyist (Addison McDowell), a former congressman (Mark Walker), a young Republican with strong personal wealth and outside support (Bo Hines) and a retired Army lieutenant colonel with the most district overlap (Christian Castelli) against each other. If you want to learn more about the race, I have a good deep dive here. This is far and away the most competitive and interesting primary, hence why it’s at the top of the list.
DEM 60th House District: Democratic state Rep. Cecil Brockman of Guilford County isn’t getting much help from fellow Democrats, and I’m unaware of any of Brockman’s 47 colleagues supporting him. Since James Adams, former president of the High Point branch of the NAACP, filed a primary challenge to Brockman, I’ve not seen any notable Democrats come to Brockman’s aide. But Brockman is getting outside help from a conservative group, which tells me this race is highly competitive and far and away the most interesting legislative primary to watch.
GOP 82nd House District: This contest between incumbent Kevin Crutchfield and challenger Brian Echevarria has become the most interesting Republican legislative primary. Why? Robinson has endorsed Echevarria. Meanwhile, Nathan Babcock, a political consultant and top adviser to legislative Republicans, is working to get Crutchfield back in office. This race reflects the tension between Robinson and the General Assembly and could prove to be a very close contest.
GOP 13th Senate District: Two Republicans are vying for this Raleigh-area tossup seat: Wake County assistant school principal Scott Lassiter and coffee shop owner Vicki Harry. Put simply: Lassiter is more well-known. But he’s also drawn the ire of people inside the General Assembly. Harry is supported by Babcock’s firm and other GOP insiders. Whoever comes out on top will say a lot about the direction the GOP is heading. This is all the more important in one of a small handful of tossup districts in November.
DEM Treasurer: There are some times as an analyst where you have to recognize you’re not the call. As I’m based in Raleigh and this race pits two Charlotte-area candidates against each other, it’s hard for me to get a good read on this contest. Rep. Wesley Harris has served in the legislature since 2019, but announced his intentions to seek higher office fairly early into the 2024 election cycle. Meanwhile, Gabe Esparza worked within the Biden administration as an associate administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration. While Harris is widely supported by congressional officeholders and other elected officials, polling I’ve seen shows this race has the potential to be highly competitive. So I’ll just leave it as an interesting race worth watching. How close will it be? I have no idea.
GOP Commissioner of Labor: Four Republicans are vying for the seat: Attorney Luke Farley, state Rep. Jon Hardister, construction safety manager Chuck Stanley and Union County resident Travis Wilson. Hardister has served in the state House since 2013, slowly working his way up party leadership to deputy majority whip and becoming a GOP favorite. But he may not be as clear a favorite in this race as some may think. Stanley previously ran for the seat in 2020, but lost the primary to now-retiring Labor Commissioner Josh Dobson by just 2.4 percentage points. Farley is a first-time candidate, but he’s running with the support of former Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry. Hardister has serious opponents in this race who shouldn’t be discounted.
DEM NC Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 6: A veteran lawyer, state Supreme Court incumbent and endorsement from Gov. Roy Cooper is a strong recipe for success. But while Allison Riggs is the favorite to advance to the general election, she’s seen pushback from some within her party, including former Justice Mike Morgan, who is among a number of Black Democrats frustrated with the governor’s selection. Judge Lora Cubbage is now looking to unseat Riggs. While it appears unlikely that Cubbage will win given Riggs’ endorsements and fundraising advantage, the race is still worth monitoring.
Primary Predictions
Nice try, but I try to steer clear of making any predictions (at least predictions that are known publicly). If I throw a perfect game, I’ll let you know.
Election Night Results
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday. But unlike previous elections, don’t expect to see early voting totals right away. That’s because election law changes that Republicans made under Senate Bill 747 now require county elections officials to wait until polls close on Election Day before they can begin the process of counting and reporting ballots cast during early voting. The State Board of Elections says the law could cause a delay north of one hour in certain counties, but likely 30 to 60 minutes in many counties. All that to say, if you’re looking for the first batch of results, 8 p.m. may be a better time to begin your endless refreshing of results on the State Board of Elections website.
Federal campaign finance updates
As of my last count, here’s the top 10 self-financers running for Congress (all Republican):
Fred Von Canon (NC-13): $2.94M
Kelly Daughtry (NC-13): $2.3M
John Bradford (NC-08): $1.6M
Laurie Buckhout (NC-01): $1.22M
Grey Mills (NC-10): $1.19M
Allan Baucom (NC-08): $1.04M
Bo Hines (NC-06): $832K
Pat Harrigan (NC-10): $503K
Christian Castelli (NC-06): $500K
Sandy Smith (NC-01): $450K
Here are all eight congressional candidates who have seen outside spending against them this election cycle, according to OpenSecrets:
Mark Harris (NC-08): $2M
Mark Walker (NC-06): $1.21M
*Pat Harrigan (NC-10): $1.18M
Bo Hines (NC-06): $905K
Fred Von Canon (NC-13): $747K
Kelly Daughtry (NC-13): $371K
Brad Knott (NC-13): $91K
Laurie Buckhout (NC-01): $25K
*Note: Total may include some spending from Harrigan’s earlier run against House Speaker Tim Moore in the 14th Congressional District.
NC campaign finance updates
Some state filing takeaways:
In the NC Supreme Court Democratic primary, Judge Lora Cubbage had some interesting line items in her latest campaign finance report. Among them: A $500 donation from U.S. Rep. Alma Adams’ political arm and a $250 contribution from Brent Barringer, husband of Republican state Supreme Court Justice Tamara Barringer (a colleague of Justice Allison Riggs, who is the Democratic primary frontrunner). Cubbage also reported spending $9,689.38 on yard signs to “Capstone Insurance Specialist.” I’m not aware of any insurance company that makes yard signs.
In the big three Council of State races, Democratic frontrunners have a big money advantage over their anticipated Republican opponents.
In the governor’s race, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein had $12.7 million in the bank, as of Feb. 18, while Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson had $4.4 million in available cash.
In the attorney general race, Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop raised about $205,000 from Jan. 1 to Feb. 17 and ended the fundraising period with roughly $1.5 million in the bank. His likely general election opponent, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson, raised $927,000 over the same stretch and had about $2.4 million in the bank.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, 15 candidates are jockeying for position: three Democrats, one Libertarian, and 11 Republicans. Democratic state Sen. Rachel Hunt had more than $404,000 in the bank thru Feb. 17. On the Republican side, attorney Seth Woodall had $228,000 in the bank (the most of any GOP candidate), albeit after having poured $1 million into his own campaign.
While Brockman is a habitually late filer who has accrued $1,200 in penalties, he submitted his latest report on time. The latest filing shows he raised more than $94,000 from Jan. 1 to Feb. 17. Among the biggest contributors were High Point investors Mark and Matt Penley, co-owners of the independent Carolina Core FC soccer team. Collectively, their families contributed $22,800 to Brockman. But other donors may have exceeded legal limits. In North Carolina, individuals and political committees can contribute a maximum of $6,400 per election (meaning $6,400 on or before March 5 and another $6,400 between March 6 and Dec. 31). Brockman’s filing showed Dr. Patrick Harman, executive director of the Hayden-Harman Foundation, donated $12,800. Local business owner Candace Humphrey contributed $13,400. Collectively, that could mean Brockman has to return $7,000 to Humphrey and $6,400 to Harman. Another note of interest from the report: Brockman paid his legislative assistant, Matthew Barley, over $10,000. The filing shows Brockman making his first payment to his campaign manager, Drew Gibson, on Jan. 1. Gibson has since received $3,025.
Quick Weekly Recap
I had three major stories this week.
The biggest: Former prosecutor and 13th Congressional District candidate Brad Knott repeatedly voted at the wrong precinct over the past decade, raising concerns of a potential felony.
In an interview on Wednesday, Knott acknowledged being registered to vote using his parents’ Raleigh address while he should’ve been using his Raleigh townhome address three miles away.
Under North Carolina law, eligible voters must be registered to vote at the address they’ve lived at for at least 30 days before the date of the election and vote in the same precinct they reside in. And if they wrongly attest to their eligibility, they could be charged with a Class I felony. Knott said he made an honest misstake.
“This is just an innocent paperwork issue,” Knott said. “Anyone who says this is felonious activity does not know what the law is.”
Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, said he couldn’t speak to the facts of Knott’s case because of the possibility of a dispute coming before elections officials. But Cohen did describe state law and the issues at stake more broadly.
“People are notoriously bad at notifying address changes,” Cohen said. “But in theory, if his residence changed to the townhouse, if that became his legal residence, then it would not be legal for him to continue voting at his parents’ address. Now, if it was in the same precinct, that would be different.”
Dueling rallies
I also spent this week covering two dueling presidential rallies: one in-person for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and one remotely for former President Donald Trump.
You can read the takeaways from both rallies here.
The clusterf**k primary
If you need an overview of the race I’m most closely watching on Tuesday, this story has you covered.
The six-candidate field of Republicans includes three leading contenders (former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, businessman Bo Hines and lobbyist Addison McDowell), one with decent odds (retired Army Lt. Col. Christian Castelli) and two with fairly longshot odds (former High Point Mayor Jay Wagner and plastic surgeon Mary Ann Contogiannis). No Democrats are running, effectively giving the GOP victor a ticket straight to D.C. in 2025.
Between rescinded endorsements, deceptive ads, heavy outside spending and more, I’ll let you read for yourself how this race has become so messy.
Tweet of the Week
I can’t think of anything that better captures the craziness of covering North Carolina politics. One minute, you’re appearing on Newsmax. The next, you’re getting a selfie with a Daily Show correspondent.
Talking politics
On Friday, I went on WUNC’s Due South program to talk about the key races to watch in 2024 and the latest developments in open congressional races. It was a terrific conversation with Colin Campbell in the guest hosting chair and Dawn Vaughan of the Raleigh News & Observer, Will Doran of WRAL and Ren Larson of The Assembly on the panel as well.
If you want a good overview of the primaries, I strongly encourage you to listen to the weekly news roundup here.
On Saturday, I went on Newsmax to discuss Haley and Trump’s visits to the state and the issues on Democratic and Republican voters’ minds as they head to the polls.
That full conversation is available below:
A closing message
Unless you are a source of mine, a lawmaker or a lobbyist, I’ll almost definitely go on your program to talk about North Carolina politics. I believe it’s crucially important for people to get fair, accurate, nonpartisan, contextual journalism. And if I can offer that to any audience, regardless of viewer partisanship, spreading truth is worth it.
As we approach Super Tuesday, allow me to make a brief editorial: Elections are divisive, and voters of all parties are frustrated. But whoever you support, do so with respect and an acceptance that others don’t share your line of thinking. And if at any time you feel intimidated, harassed or threatened at a polling place, please notify an election official immediately.
North Carolina’s political climate is likely to only intensify over the next several months. But as North Carolinians interact with those of the opposite party, let’s encourage everyone to disagree without being disagreeable.
I shall return to your feed late Tuesday/early Wednesday to break down some initial primary results.
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