The races that will make or break the GOP's supermajority
North Carolina Republicans have a legislative supermajority by the slimmest margin. While Republicans are running under more favorable maps, Democrats have a viable path to break the GOP's stronghold.
North Carolina Republicans presently have a supermajority by the slimmest margin.
It’s a stronghold that has enabled them to enact over the objections of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a ban on most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, change the makeup of state boards, embolden parents to know more about what is going on in their child’s classroom, require schools to out some LGBTQ students to their parents, prohibit biological men from competing on female sports teams and a number of other policy items.
Under voting maps used for the 2022 election, GOP lawmakers fell one House seat shy of a supermajority. That changed after then Democratic state Rep. Tricia Cotham of Mecklenburg County switched parties, thus giving Republicans veto-proof control of the state.
Now, with the 2024 election approaching, Republicans are running under more favorable voting maps they created for their party’s benefit. But Democrats still have a viable path to break the GOP supermajority. With increased talk of a likely victory for Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, focus has sharpened on races down the ballot that could determine Stein’s ability to buck GOP leaders.
An Anderson Alerts analysis shows 16 legislative races are likely to be at least somewhat competitive, including five in the Senate and 11 in the House. But if races skew as many insiders expect, Democrats would need to win at least two of three highly competitive Senate races OR four of six highly competitive House races.
Here’s the breakdown of the supermajority fight in each chamber:
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