How Hurricane Helene could impact NC's presidential race

An analysis of registration and voting data paints a complicated picture of how Hurricane Helene could impact Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

In exactly four weeks, the polls will close at 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina on Election Day. And if the past is any indicator, the presidential contest will be incredibly close.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, North Carolina is now the second swingiest swing state in the country, second only to Pennsylvania.

Former President Donald Trump is an ever so slight favorite in North Carolina based on past voting trends, but Vice President Kamala Harris could very much eke out a win. If there’s one thing operatives in both parties agree on, it’s that the race could be decided by the slimmest of margins.

Which brings us to Hurricane Helene…

Eleven days ago, the hurricane devastated western North Carolina. This immediately prompted concern from partisan outsiders and nonpartisan elections administrators about a depressed turnout. And efforts are underway to ensure voting remains widely accessible, particularly in the hardest hit communities.

At first glance, the 25 counties included in Gov. Roy Cooper’s emergency order are overwhelmingly Republican, suggesting Trump could be in deep trouble politically if displaced voters have other priorities that take precedent over voting.

But an analysis from Anderson Alerts presents a far more complicated picture of the voting ramifications the hurricane could pose. So let’s dive into the data…