Diving into the Southeast's lone congressional tossup
Shifting demographics and a new voting map have left Democratic incumbent Don Davis vulnerable. Could GOP challenger Laurie Buckhout give Republicans their first win since 1883?
Apologies to everyone for the lack of an item over the weekend. I was pursuing a couple stories, and today, am happy to share a new one that was done in partnership with The Assembly.
In eastern North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Don Davis is facing a challenge from Republican Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel and businesswoman.
Here’s what you need to know:
Political tightropes
Davis, an Air Force veteran, former mayor of Snow Hill and former state senator, rescinded a previously accepted interview request.
He has long had to walk a political tightrope to remain in office in eastern North Carolina. Three examples stand out:
In July, Davis joined 214 Republicans and five fellow Democrats voting in favor of a resolution criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris’ handling of immigration along the U.S.-Mexico border. Less than 24 hours later, he backed Harris’ presidential bid.
In 2019, Davis defied Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper on the issue of abortion by supporting a measure requiring doctors to preserve the life of any infant “born alive” during an attempted abortion. Cooper called the measure “an unnecessary interference between doctors and their patients.” Davis voted to override the governor’s veto, but the measure never became law. When a similar bill was considered in 2021, Davis was the lone senator who missed the vote.
On Oct. 13, Davis campaigned alongside Harris in Greenville, representing a strategic embrace of the national party and departure from his absences when Harris has previously traveled to the state. In 2022, U.S. Senate candidate Cheri Beasley notably snubbed Harris on the campaign trail to the frustration of some in the party.
To supporters of Davis, the track record shows his independence and political pragmatism. To critics, they show he consistently falls in line with his party.
Republicans are seizing on the embrace between Davis and Harris as evidence of the congressman’s closeness to an administration that remains unpopular in many parts of the district.
“He’s voted with Biden. He’s voting with Harris,” Buckhout said of her opponent. “He makes an occasional token vote. But honestly, if you want nothing to continue, Davis is a yes vote for Harris and Biden. That’s the bottom line.”
According to ProPublica, Davis ranked fifth among House Democrats in voting against his party; as of July, he broke with Democrats 13.7% of the time. GovTrack, which tracks congressional votes rated Davis as the most conservative Democrat in the U.S. House.
But Davis isn’t the only one navigating a political tightrope. Buckhout has deleted social media posts of her smiling and standing alongside Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, whom Republicans fear could worsen the prospects of candidates up and down the ballot. But on the campaign trail, Buckhout has maintained her support of him.
At an Oct. 9 event forum hosted by a conservative pastor at Christian Fellowship Church in Elm City, Buckhout said North Carolinians would thrive under a potential Gov. Robinson and reelected President Trump. “You’ve got a couple guys who are both economically literate,” Buckhout said.
Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, said Buckhout would be a rubber stamp for the whims of the GOP.
“Laurie Buckhout being a Mark Robinson-Donald Trump shill is the reason that she is unqualified to represent this district,” Clayton said. “She stands for every single hateful, harmful agenda that they do.”
If elected, Buckhout insists she’ll be an independent voice.
“I’m not beholden to House leadership,” she said. “I’m not beholden to a president. I’m not beholden to a speaker. I’m beholden to the people who have elected me.”
Political onlookers see both candidates as strong campaigners.
“She’s an attractive candidate, but so is he,” said Tony Copeland, an attorney and former Democratic state commerce secretary who grew up in the district in Hertford. “It’s going to be interesting to see what’s going to happen. And I do think that the national election will have some bearing on it.”
District complexities
The area Davis currently represents went for Biden by nearly 7 percentage points in 2020. Under the new 2024 map, however, Davis is now running in a district that swung for Biden by only 1.3 points.
Democrats are dealing with a new congressional map that dilutes the voting power of Black voters, a historically reliable constituency. East Carolina University, which has 27,000 students (who tend to lean liberal), is no longer in the 1st District.
The district is also slightly more white and slightly less Black under the new voting map. Under the 2024 map, 39.6% of residents are Black, compared to 40.7% in the old map. Meanwhile, 49.3% of people in the new district are white, compared to 47.7% in the old map. That represent a nearly 3-point swing from the prior election.
Another challenge: The district covers 22 counties (the most of any congressional district in the state). It stretches from the outskirts of Raleigh to the Outer Banks. The geography makes it difficult for candidates to reach voters with a consistent message.