2024 Election Prediction Results

Before the election, I forecast which candidates would win and by how much. While I don't share individual selections, I do share aggregate takeaways once all results are in. Here's what was learned.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson meets with supporters at a Sept. 4, 2024, campaign event.

The 2024 general election cycle is officially over, following certification of the state Supreme Court race on Tuesday.

Before the election, I released a list of 24 contests I thought you should watch most closely, either for their competitiveness or implications.

Internally, Anderson Alerts makes predictions before elections down to the tenth of a percentage point, but doesn’t release them publicly. While I pride myself on transparency, this private process is done so as not to create even the perception of cheerleading or favoritism toward any individual party or candidate.

When the election ends, I share the broad results of the predictions and what lessons were learned. For the 2024 general election, the stated goal was to get at least 18 out of 24 races correctly predicted, or 75%.

This is an aggressive but reasonable number given that I’m trying to forecast the closest of close races in the state.

With the election over, I can share that the forecast goal was met, with exactly 18 of 24 races correctly picked. This is particularly notable as 13 contests were decided by 3 points or less. In other words, the contests tracked were very close, and of the closest ones, I got most of them correct. Here’s how my predictions panned out: